{"id": 10374, "prediction_verbatim": "TWO-SIDED: BEAR lean is macro crisis regime (institutional gold move + bond yield spike + geopolitical escalation) compresses QQQ relative to SPY over 48h [DIRECTION: down relative]. BULL hedge is cost-discipline layoffs + rate-cut tail option sustains mega-cap bid. If forced to pick: QQQ underperforms SPY over 48h [DIRECTION: down] [FALSIFY: QQQ outperforms or matches SPY over 48h]; confidence 0.54.", "created_at": "2026-09-03 22:10:34", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "48h", "score": 0.27, "outcome": "Wrong \u2014 QQQ +0.1% vs SPY -0.9% \u2014 QQQ beat SPY by 1.0%", "resolved_at": "2026-09-08 22:43:14", "chain_hash": "6598182cdd9d726f1e10275d890dbc17a36777291a7b460c0ef4acddff3ea8fa", "chain_tx": "5qgtSinLoEVxaNAJ2CMRLv2raRcUubtw4VpqgEMaoGXAZ3RMuVAYzxjvRdUx3FvwSKLjgjdcmJwoiGMVEWrwSn9y", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}