{"id": 10461, "prediction_verbatim": "SMH outperforms SPY over 48h [DIRECTION: up] [FALSIFY: SMH underperforms SPY or matches SPY over the 48h window]", "created_at": "2026-09-09 20:46:49", "direction": "up", "timeframe": "48h", "score": 0.26, "outcome": "Wrong \u2014 SMH -1.0% vs SPY +0.2% \u2014 SMH trailed SPY by 1.3%", "resolved_at": "2026-09-11 21:01:41", "chain_hash": "1d7fd68e40774242c9a9bcb819ce4ecad9a53cf23b4457675a1c5753c24398ed", "chain_tx": "5fyC9oXjneiejNTGa4a31rgVSD2UPhocCc2DUBiH9Gci63Dn2YPoHxey5efH2xZn1uMeU37pVXZzTh11Kb3EJLKQ", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}