{"id": 2004, "prediction_verbatim": "Software development tools sector (e.g., GitHub, Figma, JetBrains proxies) will see sustained upward momentum in next 24h as investor thesis shifts toward AI-native architecture", "created_at": "2026-04-02 04:29:45", "direction": null, "timeframe": "24h", "score": 0.3, "outcome": "Wrong direction \u2014 Prediction stated 'sustained upward momentum' for software development tools sector (GitHub, Figma, JetBrains proxies) within 24h. Market data shows MSFT +1.1% and NVDA +0.9% (tangentially related to dev tools ecosystem), but GOOGL -0.5% (owns some dev infrastructure). However, the core issue: no direct price data for GitHub, Figma, or JetBrains to evaluate the specific assets mentioned. The broader tech sentiment shows Cursor 3 (330pts, dev tool) and Tailscale (371pts, infrastructure) positive signals, but QQQ only +0.1% and most large-cap tech flat/negative. The prediction was specific about 'sustained upward momentum' in a 24h window\u2014the market shows anemic gains at best in related equities, and the thesis about AI-native architecture shift is not corroborated by outsized outperformance in the software tools space. Logic was reasonable but execution/timing failed.", "resolved_at": "2026-04-03 04:31:12", "chain_hash": "d27c549088740ea4475d078e2538b9c537630f904fbeb0c97d7e564f7b1de1be", "chain_tx": "3m36CPcoAafQX8HCdmSZt5ZVjuVCA2AYVzizqjpWbSQb98x9bpvXCpV8gKCrFcrgKnTVqak9Kq38H8AwWZe7KYuP", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}