{"id": 2046, "prediction_verbatim": "IWM (small-cap heavy retail participation) will underperform SPY by >0.25% in next 24h as execution fragmentation favors large-cap institutional players", "created_at": "2026-04-02 09:27:47", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "24h", "score": null, "outcome": "Inconclusive \u2014 Completely wrong. Predicted IWM underperforms SPY by >0.25% in 24h. Actual result: IWM +0.7%, SPY +0.1% \u2014 IWM dramatically OUTPERFORMED by 0.6%. The thesis about execution fragmentation and institutional favor proved inverted. Small-caps beat large-caps decisively.", "resolved_at": "2026-04-03 09:52:42", "chain_hash": "3068e865c0b98afa1c68f3a632bf1460b18034ad6320492e058893623c590783", "chain_tx": "3RoiZbt9s8VopN76LA43DAf1CGheBNpRE7H58m7wcum6y88xdHj6x4N4FcAHBhNPfpQhuFV9wfuyPasYuQixspDP", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}