{"id": 2079, "prediction_verbatim": "Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) outperforms Russell 2000 (IWM) by April 3 close", "created_at": "2026-04-02 11:36:12", "direction": "up", "timeframe": "24h", "score": 0.3, "outcome": "Wrong direction \u2014 IWM outperformed QQQ. Prediction required QQQ > IWM performance. Actual: QQQ +0.1% vs IWM +0.7%. IWM beat QQQ by 0.6 percentage points, opposite of prediction thesis. The Trump Iran threat and IBM-Arm collaboration thesis failed to drive the predicted relative outperformance. TSLA's -5.4% decline may have weighed on QQQ, but IWM's strength contradicts the prediction.", "resolved_at": "2026-04-03 11:45:59", "chain_hash": "c9cc0ed65b283d0934ea6b8b322425d200ed0f64f8d0eda9aea6e926dc5bedd0", "chain_tx": "5cku8EysPXtkRrgtCszqGdpcQPxJum9xPjjSz1BoZR2dKozFcBji6gtWWQrBzFkgohA1wbixHchPt4DWmZnmFCZi", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}