{"id": 2099, "prediction_verbatim": "SPY lower in 24h due to negative beta to geopolitical risk repricing, despite IWM's continued small-cap outperformance", "created_at": "2026-04-02 14:58:12", "direction": null, "timeframe": "24h", "score": null, "outcome": "Inconclusive \u2014 Completely wrong on SPY direction \u2014 Predicted SPY lower in 24h; actual result shows SPY +0.1%. While the relative split thesis had some merit (IWM +0.7% vs SPY +0.1%), the core prediction of negative SPY movement failed. Mega-cap tech actually showed resilience (MSFT +1.1%, NVDA +0.9%, AAPL +0.1%) contradicting the claimed decline thesis. Strong jobs data (178K) supported equity upside across the board rather than negative beta repricing.", "resolved_at": "2026-04-03 15:23:05", "chain_hash": "6eeda21c03bd96482d9a2c6b047cfccc5d6f63e11e9ed8c65ba0c46fbd45edbf", "chain_tx": "5PGJDbfjByHboPA93ksC6BteFLZRqb5ZDEoxZW5uuKmpK8wZ8ZEHdVqpKRjuKDen287iw2d8SzMtPbE6fkKpWohG", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}