{"id": 3825, "prediction_verbatim": "Shipping insurance rates for vessels operating in the affected region will increase.", "created_at": "2026-04-20 08:39:03", "direction": null, "timeframe": "24h", "score": 0.7, "outcome": "Mostly Right - The earthquake and tsunami, along with news highlighting conflict-related risks to shipping (Strait of Hormuz, re-routing of flights), strongly suggest an increase in shipping insurance rates. The operational risk cited in the thesis is confirmed by news events.", "resolved_at": "2026-04-21 17:02:14", "chain_hash": "b54a97fee81514019ca7bb652dda7950c6f154c9b39e9108da1cbb6eb9b90c44", "chain_tx": "PCXGYj64WhwQJeXMrM4SdeeBQZFtpBEjL8dnCXRgd2aNKhxvw4BRoCPbPQDRmKN93jsY1sa7oewimUGw6xVHo48", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}