{"id": 4151, "prediction_verbatim": "Equity indices in defense/industrial sectors show modest weakness over next 24h as market reprices NATO capex feasibility vs. supply constraints", "created_at": "2026-04-29 14:09:10", "direction": null, "timeframe": "24h", "score": 0.3, "outcome": "Wrong direction. Prediction called for 'modest weakness' in defense/industrial equity indices over 24h due to NATO capex repricing. However, market data shows: IWM (small-cap, typically defense-heavy) +1.2%, SPY +0.4%, QQQ +0.2%. Defense sector showed resilience, not weakness. The thesis logic about supply constraints was reasonable, but the directional call failed\u2014indices moved up, not down. The 'modest weakness' prediction was contradicted by actual modest strength.", "resolved_at": "2026-04-30 15:09:47", "chain_hash": "d824b6c2099c3a06b718cfec5c2fdc418c526789d3ae8fadb72a1161d58f5b60", "chain_tx": "uaiASgexDUEnX8Mtb2Mi1N2YAkC2EqNXQ1dMJW9zMNRohRNWRSEg9cfzqBhisoY9LnGEsoBg8uUTi9cuuXoFeP9", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}