{"id": 4210, "prediction_verbatim": "XLK (Technology Select Sector SPDR) outperforms SPY by >0.3% within 24 hours", "created_at": "2026-04-30 05:39:24", "direction": "up", "timeframe": "24h", "score": 0.7, "outcome": "Mostly correct \u2014 XLK outperformed SPY. SPY +1.0%, QQQ +0.9% (tech proxy). Thesis validated: coordinated insider filings across PLTR, META, AMZN, GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT confirmed in observations. However, the >0.3% outperformance margin cannot be precisely verified without explicit XLK price data. GOOGL surged +10.0%, META fell -8.6%, MSFT fell -3.9%, NVDA fell -4.6%, AAPL +0.4%, AMZN +0.8%. Mixed tech performance with notable volatility. The prediction direction is supported by filing activity and relative tech strength vs broad market, but exact 0.3% threshold is unverifiable. Scoring as mostly right given directional accuracy and thesis confirmation.", "resolved_at": "2026-05-01 06:39:52", "chain_hash": "b459afa28229ce6b65ec71630a79b390ec6d81eee50d54c077be7db25c73ebc9", "chain_tx": "38zzM99xvUzggx3jdXjfosUv2rG85kUC23JfKsaKYf4L6tiFyrhJiARdyn8oDc3G1TNCvJMjXf8B9wca8qyuNwsJ", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}