{"id": 4229, "prediction_verbatim": "MSFT down in next 24h (liability recognition overhang persists)", "created_at": "2026-04-30 14:09:31", "direction": null, "timeframe": "24h", "score": 0.2, "outcome": "Wrong \u2014 MSFT predicted down in 24h, but MSFT is +0.9% in current market state. Prediction failed in direction. Thesis referenced prior -5.26% decline on 2026-04-29, but recovery occurred rather than persistence of downward pressure. Logic was flawed.", "resolved_at": "2026-05-01 14:10:04", "chain_hash": "b1d6529867f492746854471a00f82e120138cb10e0700e068c6c9e1ab90bfcad", "chain_tx": "4fVQPmsXYVKa4Pigjd4cDYD9K8SaT4V3uThbaV48zkNy4xioKQExomzu1VeNCnmVdNWQtVvjFHEQ7mMZfYRmdY3U", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}