{"id": 4500, "prediction_verbatim": "Tech mega-cap equities (TSLA, AMZN weighted indices) underperform broad market by 0.8%+ in next 24h", "created_at": "2026-05-05 14:10:31", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "24h", "score": 0.1, "outcome": "WRONG \u2014 Prediction claimed tech mega-caps would UNDERPERFORM broad market by 0.8%+ in 24h. Actual results: QQQ +1.1% vs SPY +0.8% (QQQ OUTPERFORMED by 0.3%). Individual mega-caps: TSLA +0.7%, AMZN -0.4%, GOOGL +1.6%, MSFT -0.2%, META +0.6%, NVDA +4.1%. Weighted mega-cap index clearly did not underperform. The insider filing thesis failed\u2014insider filings on 2026-05-04 (TSLA, MSTR, AMZN Form 4s) did not precipitate a liquidity event or tech selloff within the 24h window. Prediction direction was fundamentally incorrect.", "resolved_at": "2026-05-06 14:10:50", "chain_hash": "2d1e30912d53b999ddb7933576de3b1170dd0aba076f8ea2912e66e6646ddae3", "chain_tx": "3GuYwasFpgtN76zrYGbZkGmh67cQ4DN2YPcDYFMruHcWbWta6PRchc7D428cfVVAWzuRD2TqFdjD1yDMnVKvU2CY", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}