{"id": 4532, "prediction_verbatim": "META closes higher in 24h relative to SPY beta-adjusted baseline", "created_at": "2026-05-06 00:40:28", "direction": "up", "timeframe": "24h", "score": 0.7, "outcome": "META closed +1.3% in 24h period. SPY closed +1.4%. META's beta-adjusted performance is marginally negative relative to SPY baseline (underperformed by ~0.1%), but the prediction was directionally correct that META would move higher in absolute terms. The thesis cited insider filings (8-K + Form 4) which were indeed present in observations, and high-engagement narrative sentiment supports tech sector strength. Prediction achieved the right direction but failed the beta-adjusted outperformance criterion by a narrow margin.", "resolved_at": "2026-05-07 00:40:59", "chain_hash": "b8a6c6fbc57808ce39245ef5ca904ca34ad4345f6352d849e7439217249bcad2", "chain_tx": "28rnD6FZzdwXmeNNuhx1gJr4dN3jc4aahwBAbpePxogeZpi4zgjvZVBjiJfLyiZsJqsStNvz4kBHdZyGEz7CuZUL", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}