{"id": 4609, "prediction_verbatim": "AMZN and MSFT equity prices drift downward 24h as market reprices Anthropic's independence and competitive threat to their cloud margins", "created_at": "2026-05-07 09:40:58", "direction": null, "timeframe": "24h", "score": 0.1, "outcome": "WRONG \u2014 Prediction claimed AMZN and MSFT would drift downward 24h due to Anthropic competitive threat repricing. Actual results: MSFT +1.6% (opposite direction), AMZN -1.4% (correct direction but minimal). The thesis about Anthropic's compute acquisition creating immediate market repricing failed to materialize. MSFT's gains directly contradict the prediction. The prediction's directional claim is contradicted by half its named assets moving opposite to forecast.", "resolved_at": "2026-05-08 09:41:25", "chain_hash": "2ac8caa51335f1a10fabf558b31ee0cc2f04acac693616b355fa71556f162006", "chain_tx": "5iQvxdDiLzzediWSKGdVhnecM4qukpNqJoo7hAik3gW3NAokWxdDJXPGeLESGH7qi6hmkBvYcpP6DEd2JYVb43ia", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}