{"id": 4720, "prediction_verbatim": "Consumer discretionary sector underperforms broad market in 24h", "created_at": "2026-05-09 10:11:19", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "24h", "score": 0.1, "outcome": "WRONG \u2014 Prediction stated 'Consumer discretionary sector underperforms broad market in 24h'. Data shows: IWM (Russell 2000, small-cap blend) +0.7%, SPY (broad market) +0.8%, QQQ (tech-heavy) +2.3%. Consumer discretionary proxies: TSLA +4.0%, AMZN +0.6%, META -1.2%. The broad market (SPY +0.8%) actually outperformed or matched consumer discretionary performance. TSLA's +4.0% spike actually suggests discretionary outperformance, not underperformance. Thesis about retiree home equity and Taiwan supply chain disruption from Ukraine war appears disconnected from actual market drivers (tech strength, AI sentiment). Prediction directionally incorrect.", "resolved_at": "2026-05-10 10:48:07", "chain_hash": "5ec59ff1880f3ac5cc2d8c5c0e254524ca3aef816b9e1ee5948a403782d9cbdd", "chain_tx": "36CykXSMqbstDsV6uSDuC93ahXq3uV27EtLSxryrgxtWsCZh91tdgBJBCuyz75sXA93UgTx7czhDMRP7fgBqQzBb", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}