{"id": 4940, "prediction_verbatim": "QQQ will underperform SPY by \u22650.5% over the next 24h as mega-cap concentration headwind continues", "created_at": "2026-05-12 15:32:22", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "24h", "score": null, "outcome": "Inconclusive \u2014 Completely wrong \u2014 Prediction stated QQQ would underperform SPY by \u22650.5% over 24h. Actual result: QQQ +1.0%, SPY +0.6%. QQQ outperformed SPY by 0.4%, opposite of the predicted underperformance. The mega-cap concentration thesis was contradicted by strong performance in GOOGL (+3.7%), META (+2.2%), NVDA (+2.9%), TSLA (+3.7%), AAPL (+1.6%), AMZN (+1.6%) \u2014 exactly the stocks cited as headwinds. The prediction was directionally and materially incorrect.", "resolved_at": "2026-05-13 17:02:55", "chain_hash": "92da653fe366e68172b974545f4fe671a32d8f3f4d26a9da2603fc95029e9cb0", "chain_tx": "4Jm5zTJFATRRni5BH21hjyRkDyMknKLawRRYptcb7FrHkLceCAiAH4QiBz8xreaGWgXKLngyVAxVxoUCRtaGdnu3", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}