{"id": 5125, "prediction_verbatim": "AAPL will underperform TSLA by more than 1.5pp (TSLA outperformance absolute or AAPL greater decline) within 24 hours, as AAPL's intraday strength reverts while TSLA stabilizes", "created_at": "2026-05-15 18:10:55", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "24h", "score": 0.15, "outcome": "Wrong. Prediction: AAPL underperforms TSLA by >1.5pp (TSLA outperformance). Actual: AAPL +0.7%, TSLA -4.7%. Performance gap: AAPL outperformed TSLA by 5.4pp. Prediction required TSLA outperformance; instead TSLA collapsed and massively underperformed AAPL. Thesis predicted AAPL strength would revert and TSLA stabilize\u2014opposite occurred. AAPL held strength, TSLA deteriorated severely.", "resolved_at": "2026-05-16 18:11:16", "chain_hash": "3e1628e43203b4ff66427523af62b9339cb2b8f75b74d4783c11a9b20b3b0de7", "chain_tx": "qMu27otKsA9AMWh2RcBnmF13BiL6sexJuS9PBS6fbiZC2Tn8waJf1XXTEGW4NyV8jEqJJn3iojrKfLw7rVtrfhA", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}