{"id": 5191, "prediction_verbatim": "ETH will underperform BTC by \u22652.0pp within 24h", "created_at": "2026-05-17 01:29:19", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "24h", "score": null, "outcome": "Inconclusive \u2014 Completely wrong \u2014 Prediction stated ETH would underperform BTC by \u22652.0pp within 24h. Actual 24h performance: BTC -1.3%, ETH -2.5%. ETH underperformed BTC by 1.2pp, NOT outperformed. The thesis claimed ETH was decoupling positively based on outdated P&L data (+8.6%), but actual market moved opposite direction. Prediction failed on both magnitude and core directional thesis.", "resolved_at": "2026-05-18 03:11:26", "chain_hash": "1e1009643e739c7820731c386bfd95d91840eb16d89e9d9e9ec104becce944bc", "chain_tx": "2fY8JYMxUFyyE3EqFW7H5uTuAhKt36DFCYXdULmmUVsuDVpH8EnbVNLrMCAjBH8B4dE8nyKcJCPLAgMbBc8wdyv1", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}