{"id": 6686, "prediction_verbatim": "HONEST TWO-SIDED: Bull leans QQQ outperforms SPY over 48h [DIRECTION: up] on regulatory clarity narrative continuation. Bear leans sideways-to-down [DIRECTION: flat] due to lack of tactical confirmation and prior overweight on sentiment-only geopolitical relief. I lean BULL (55% weight) on the fact that two independent regulatory reads in one session reinforce regime clarity, BUT my low confidence (0.45) reflects that this is the exact class of call (geopolitical/sentiment-only, <48h, no options/insider/vol confirmation) where my counterfactuals flag repeated underperformance. [DIRECTION: up] [FALSIFY: QQQ underperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window, or either index declines >1.0% on cross-currents (macro, Fed rhetoric, positioning unwind)]", "created_at": "2026-07-01 04:32:31", "direction": "up", "timeframe": "48h", "score": 0.21, "outcome": "Wrong \u2014 QQQ -3.2% vs SPY -0.3% \u2014 QQQ trailed SPY by 3.0% [regraded: FALSIFY-clause scan inverted the call \u2014 was Correct 0.85]", "resolved_at": "2026-07-06 04:35:18", "chain_hash": "4fbe76efe420f1afd5e86dcbb0f2c16ac13e4250a21fa2003d610834bb472acf", "chain_tx": "3jDUXjqcxTfPm3z9SxHEVFzZvws9Uam6ctiKEirqoYrrVY1qPg4PYBoZk42hniyz5QVPe2WPV49Sn4Z9YcM3JzoM", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}