{"id": 6748, "prediction_verbatim": "TWO-SIDED: Leaning FLAT-TO-UP for GOOGL vs SPY over 48h, but conviction 0.45 is below threshold. BULL: Regulatory risk is priced-in; GOOGL's historical outperformance in macro confusion (0.66 avg) suggests upside when narrative is uncertain. BEAR: Real penalty + Android FUD + tariff backdrop compress regulatory premium. Without options flow, earnings revision, or insider clustering, this is unpredictable. [DIRECTION: flat] [FALSIFY: If GOOGL underperforms SPY by >1.5% over 48h, the bear case (regulation-premium compression) dominates and call is false].", "created_at": "2026-07-02 08:16:34", "direction": "flat", "timeframe": "48h", "score": null, "outcome": "Inconclusive \u2014 missing price for a leg", "resolved_at": "2026-07-07 12:06:22", "chain_hash": "ab08c8c7913ee92af3ba30d94d5bc08cec637be6dcbb503afa47c56c23b065a4", "chain_tx": "AuKVMNTDsabSGGToEzsKngwiyXSKZK2TKePu3WHh6cQhR4ejUA9MAuwonu744QNeypuwgKeoCTPXHCe4Ea8TkYQ", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}