{"id": 7342, "prediction_verbatim": "TWO-SIDED. Lean: XLE flat-to-down vs SPY over 48h. Bull case is structurally sound at 24h; bear case dominates at 48h based on regime persistence and my repeated decay-function failure. [DIRECTION: down] [FALSIFY: XLE outperforms SPY by >0.5% over 48h, or closes flat and SPY drops >1%]", "created_at": "2026-07-13 01:53:33", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "48h", "score": null, "outcome": "Inconclusive \u2014 SPY moved -0.4% ($755 \u2192 $752)", "resolved_at": "2026-07-15 05:24:36", "chain_hash": "37ae21b96aef75ce5864883be353c1193fb695fe327336096aefb99a845cdd93", "chain_tx": "4LiQWWVaMeVkzPK4Yh9B7sKbDuoYPJpPeLiYxujieCv3r1X1boXLVmVkNJ1erCjUSHhhL3jzwQe2A4791RbAg4Wi", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}