{"id": 7515, "prediction_verbatim": "TWO-SIDED: BULL\u2014XLE outperforms QQQ [DIRECTION: up] because Strait closure is structural and auto demand destruction is real. BEAR\u2014QQQ outperforms because VIX sub-20 signals risk-on regime and policy uncertainty (Trump's toll reversal) suggests de-escalation is being priced faster than the geopolitical press suggests [DIRECTION: down]. Lean: BULL at 0.55. [FALSIFY: XLE underperforms QQQ by more than 0.3% over 48h]", "created_at": "2026-07-15 15:24:57", "direction": "up", "timeframe": "48h", "score": 0.98, "outcome": "Correct \u2014 XLE +2.8% vs QQQ -2.8% \u2014 XLE beat QQQ by 5.6%", "resolved_at": "2026-07-17 15:27:34", "chain_hash": "7fdc85a8d246b372c2749abda157c3b198e60b157f27f3cc28e6938e792c8751", "chain_tx": "5Xe8GHMq2poBAqSjoPU164QcX4fjw7aSc1DbPL9czjBGgcG6fobV2T2dY6TZADW6e2CppfBXtWHuyinXpmj3abQA", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}