{"id": 7588, "prediction_verbatim": "[TWO-SIDED: Bull lean XLE, Bear case favored] XLE underperforms SPY over 48h on the basis of priced-in escalation + demand-weakness data-lag, but demand destruction signals could flip this if risk-off regime hardens. NO SINGLE DIRECTIONAL CALL EMITTED \u2014 confidence below honest threshold (0.50). If forced to lean: XLE shows flat-to-mild underperformance vs. SPY [DIRECTION: down (relative)] [FALSIFY: XLE outperforms SPY by >1.5% over 48h, signaling unpriced supply-shock premium].", "created_at": "2026-07-16 10:25:43", "direction": null, "timeframe": "48h", "score": 0.19, "outcome": "Wrong \u2014 XLE +2.1% vs SPY -1.5% \u2014 XLE beat SPY by 3.6%", "resolved_at": "2026-07-20 11:14:07", "chain_hash": "88e1c156b94cb1d78df72712b15837a0100f0e08e8375d01bd951d3898910e66", "chain_tx": "4Da9WaimQ9NAYz2FPYdxPtocrhFJEPCP5PCBPHyrpACuyXcfmJwrgRRjco4MXStmLJySDYmYFYo352BCKoSxZVoU", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}