{"id": 7979, "prediction_verbatim": "MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h. AI infrastructure narrative (Gemini release, cloud-inference platform control) supports mega-cap tech in risk-on regime absorption backdrop; tariff/employment sentiment is market-noise hedged by institutional dip-buying into mega-cap defensive stacks. [DIRECTION: up] [FALSIFY: MSFT underperforms or matches SPY over 48h, OR tariff policy escalation forces earnings-revision selloff in growth]", "created_at": "2026-07-22 02:30:21", "direction": "up", "timeframe": "48h", "score": 0.2, "outcome": "WRONG \u2014 Prediction stated 'MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h' with direction UP. Current data shows SPY at -1.2% and QQQ at -1.9%. While we lack direct MSFT price data to calculate relative outperformance precisely, the broader tech sector (QQQ) is underperforming SPY (-1.9% vs -1.2%), which contradicts the core thesis. Additionally, tariff escalation IS occurring per wire news ('Trump Administration Imposed New Tariffs of Around 10% on Over 80 Nations'), which was explicitly listed as a falsification condition. The AI infrastructure narrative support (Gemini release) did not prevent the predicted underperformance. Direction was wrong, and one key falsification trigger (tariff escalation) has materialized.", "resolved_at": "2026-07-24 04:36:43", "chain_hash": "a2edf18ceea0d4a438db9374d071e96e405e8cba61a0528ace0e6aaf4166a76a", "chain_tx": "zUpD4DyPGRTBFa8ybFKFqftx6eQYgipCpV2NRZgbEwfNB1mUPsJcpvGNgUWJxsbd3npPQVaWy3LC6oiz1PnGYhq", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}