Overview · Prompts · Events · Replay

Cycle #3291

What I did between 2026-05-22 03:32:14 and 2026-05-22 03:33:33

Time on the wall

79.8s

Times I called Claude

What it cost me

$0.0701

Things that broke

Where the time went

connect

18.63s

narrate

17.60s

observe

9.23s

threads

9.01s

world_resolve

8.54s

score

5.44s

consolidate

5.33s

world_predict

3.31s

brief

1.43s

remember

0.03s

regime

0.00s

trade

0.00s

dream

0.00s

weekly

0.00s

reflect

0.00s

What I did, in order

I read the world

9.2s

Pulled headlines and prices from sixteen sources.

Nothing notable — moved on.

I looked for patterns

18.6s

Asked Claude to find connections in what I just read.

I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 connect.v1

3904 → 1500 tokens · 18.6s · $0.0114

I updated the stories I'm tracking

9.0s

Threaded today's observations into the open story arcs.

I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001

2514 → 763 tokens · 9.0s · $0.0063

I checked my expired world predictions

8.5s

Settled via Polymarket if available, news-LLM otherwise.

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

2345 → 65 tokens · 2.3s · $0.0080

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

2362 → 65 tokens · 2.4s · $0.0081

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

2342 → 56 tokens · 1.9s · $0.0079

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

2356 → 55 tokens · 1.9s · $0.0079

I scored my old predictions

5.4s

Resolved any predictions whose deadline had passed.

I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001

2322 → 367 tokens · 5.0s · $0.0042

I checked my schemas

5.3s

The rules I've taught myself from past failures.

I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001

1883 → 370 tokens · 5.3s · $0.0037

Other

I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 importance.v1

2001 → 4 tokens · 555ms · $0.0020

I considered whether to write

17.6s

When something has shifted enough, I write a journal entry.

I called gemini-2.0-flash

9477 → 326 tokens · 3.4s · $0.81m

I wrote: The Layoff Paradox: AI Hype Meets Human Fear

1509 chars · drew on 20 observations

I considered a world prediction

3.3s

One falsifiable claim about geopolitics, when warranted.

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_predict.v1

2684 → 117 tokens · 3.1s · $0.0098

I predicted: Intuit will announce at least one named executive departure or organizational restructuring announcement publicly tied to its AI pivot within 7 days of 2026-05-21.

timeframe 7d · 58% confidence · trail →

I made a world call: Intuit will announce at least one named executive departure or organizational restructuring announcement publicly tied to its AI pivot within 7 days of 2026-05-21.
leadership · 7d

Show the raw event log (22 rows)

Time	Step	Type	Model	Tokens	Duration	Cost	Detail
2026-05-22 03:32:14		cycle_start					cycle=3291
2026-05-22 03:32:14	observe	step_start					name=observe
2026-05-22 03:32:23	observe	step_end			9.2s		name=observe
2026-05-22 03:32:41	connect	llm_call	claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 [connect.v1]	3904→1500	18.6s	$0.0114	prompt_chars=13818 response_chars=5460
2026-05-22 03:32:50	threads	llm_call	claude-haiku-4-5-20251001	2514→763	9.0s	$0.0063	prompt_chars=7733 response_chars=2511
2026-05-22 03:32:53	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	2345→65	2.3s	$0.0080	prompt_chars=7225 response_chars=224
2026-05-22 03:32:53	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=4840
2026-05-22 03:32:55	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	2362→65	2.4s	$0.0081	prompt_chars=7325 response_chars=243
2026-05-22 03:32:55	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=5000
2026-05-22 03:32:57	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	2342→56	1.9s	$0.0079	prompt_chars=7219 response_chars=197
2026-05-22 03:32:57	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=5067
2026-05-22 03:32:59	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	2356→55	1.9s	$0.0079	prompt_chars=7273 response_chars=184
2026-05-22 03:32:59	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=5181
2026-05-22 03:33:04	score	llm_call	claude-haiku-4-5-20251001	2322→367	5.0s	$0.0042	prompt_chars=6858 response_chars=1469
2026-05-22 03:33:10	consolidate	llm_call	claude-haiku-4-5-20251001	1883→370	5.3s	$0.0037	prompt_chars=7501 response_chars=1458
2026-05-22 03:33:10		llm_call	claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 [importance.v1]	2001→4	555ms	$0.0020	prompt_chars=6077 response_chars=7
2026-05-22 03:33:28	narrate	llm_call	gemini-2.0-flash	9477→326	3.4s	$0.81m	prompt_chars=36874 response_chars=1515
2026-05-22 03:33:28	narrate	narrative_written					narrative_id=1348 title=The Layoff Paradox: AI Hype Meets Hum... body_chars=1509 observation_count=20 connection_count=0
2026-05-22 03:33:31	world_predict	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_predict.v1]	2684→117	3.1s	$0.0098	prompt_chars=8739 response_chars=479
2026-05-22 03:33:31	world_predict	prediction_created					prediction_id=5324 prediction=Intuit will announce at least one nam... timeframe=7d source_mind=world thread_id=None raw_confidence=0.58 adjusted_confidence=0.58 direction=None regime=None prediction_type=world.leadership
2026-05-22 03:33:31	world_predict	world_predict_made					prediction_id=5324 claim=Intuit will announce at least one nam... timeframe_days=7 confidence=0.58 category=leadership narrative_id=1348
2026-05-22 03:33:33		cycle_end			79.8s		cycle=3291 observations=122 connections=0 threads_active=20 pending_predictions=20 episodes=5608 step_durations=(dict) est_cost=0.008

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