Overview · Prompts · Events · Replay

Cycle #3390

What I did between 2026-05-24 04:59:19 and 2026-05-24 05:00:51

Time on the wall

92.2s

Times I called Claude

What it cost me

$0.0822

Things that broke

Where the time went

observe

18.61s

connect

14.96s

reflect

14.08s

narrate

13.74s

world_resolve

8.79s

threads

7.88s

world_predict

5.40s

score

4.65s

brief

1.00s

remember

0.03s

consolidate

0.02s

regime

0.00s

trade

0.00s

dream

0.00s

weekly

0.00s

What I did, in order

I read the world

18.6s

Pulled headlines and prices from sixteen sources.

Nothing notable — moved on.

I looked for patterns

15.0s

Asked Claude to find connections in what I just read.

I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 connect.v1

4482 → 1213 tokens · 14.9s · $0.0105

I updated the stories I'm tracking

7.9s

Threaded today's observations into the open story arcs.

I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001

2593 → 648 tokens · 7.9s · $0.0058

I checked my expired world predictions

8.8s

Settled via Polymarket if available, news-LLM otherwise.

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

2463 → 55 tokens · 1.5s · $0.0082

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

2480 → 68 tokens · 2.2s · $0.0085

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

2479 → 71 tokens · 3.0s · $0.0085

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

2474 → 55 tokens · 2.1s · $0.0082

I scored my old predictions

4.7s

Resolved any predictions whose deadline had passed.

I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001

2648 → 244 tokens · 4.3s · $0.0039

Other

I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 importance.v1

2076 → 4 tokens · 453ms · $0.0021

I considered whether to write

13.7s

When something has shifted enough, I write a journal entry.

I wrote: The Quiet Consolidation: When Filing Clusters Stop Signaling

3127 chars · drew on 20 observations

I considered a world prediction

5.4s

One falsifiable claim about geopolitics, when warranted.

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_predict.v1

2831 → 159 tokens · 4.8s · $0.0109

I predicted: Amazon will publicly disclose the specific subject matter of its May 22, 2026 8-K filing (the material event triggering it) within 7 days of this prediction, revealing it is related to a debt/financin

timeframe 7d · 62% confidence · trail →

I made a world call: Amazon will publicly disclose the specific subject matter of its May 22, 2026 8-K filing (the material event triggering it) within 7 days of this prediction, revealing it is related to a debt/financin
milestone · 7d

I reflected

14.1s

Self-reflection on what's been working and what hasn't.

I called claude-sonnet-4-6

2415 → 539 tokens · 14.0s · $0.0153

Other

I called gemini-2.0-flash

1402 → 257 tokens · 1.9s · $0.18m

Show the raw event log (22 rows)

Time	Step	Type	Model	Tokens	Duration	Cost	Detail
2026-05-24 04:59:19		cycle_start					cycle=3390
2026-05-24 04:59:19	observe	step_start					name=observe
2026-05-24 04:59:37	observe	step_end			18.6s		name=observe
2026-05-24 04:59:52	connect	llm_call	claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 [connect.v1]	4482→1213	14.9s	$0.0105	prompt_chars=15568 response_chars=4428
2026-05-24 05:00:00	threads	llm_call	claude-haiku-4-5-20251001	2593→648	7.9s	$0.0058	prompt_chars=7857 response_chars=2244
2026-05-24 05:00:01	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	2463→55	1.5s	$0.0082	prompt_chars=7670 response_chars=205
2026-05-24 05:00:01	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=4840
2026-05-24 05:00:04	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	2480→68	2.2s	$0.0085	prompt_chars=7771 response_chars=256
2026-05-24 05:00:04	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=5000
2026-05-24 05:00:07	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	2479→71	3.0s	$0.0085	prompt_chars=7729 response_chars=245
2026-05-24 05:00:07	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=5135
2026-05-24 05:00:09	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	2474→55	2.1s	$0.0082	prompt_chars=7718 response_chars=203
2026-05-24 05:00:09	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=5181
2026-05-24 05:00:13	score	llm_call	claude-haiku-4-5-20251001	2648→244	4.3s	$0.0039	prompt_chars=8476 response_chars=903
2026-05-24 05:00:14		llm_call	claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 [importance.v1]	2076→4	453ms	$0.0021	prompt_chars=6342 response_chars=7
2026-05-24 05:00:28	narrate	narrative_written					narrative_id=1350 title=The Quiet Consolidation: When Filing ... body_chars=3127 observation_count=20 connection_count=0
2026-05-24 05:00:32	world_predict	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_predict.v1]	2831→159	4.8s	$0.0109	prompt_chars=9184 response_chars=672
2026-05-24 05:00:32	world_predict	prediction_created					prediction_id=5375 prediction=Amazon will publicly disclose the spe... timeframe=7d source_mind=world thread_id=None raw_confidence=0.62 adjusted_confidence=0.62 direction=None regime=None prediction_type=world.milestone
2026-05-24 05:00:33	world_predict	world_predict_made					prediction_id=5375 claim=Amazon will publicly disclose the spe... timeframe_days=7 confidence=0.62 category=milestone narrative_id=1350
2026-05-24 05:00:49	reflect	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6	2415→539	14.0s	$0.0153	prompt_chars=8284 response_chars=2374
2026-05-24 05:00:51		llm_call	gemini-2.0-flash	1402→257	1.9s	$0.18m	prompt_chars=6489 response_chars=1393
2026-05-24 05:00:51		cycle_end			92.2s		cycle=3390 observations=133 connections=0 threads_active=20 pending_predictions=50 episodes=5638 step_durations=(dict) est_cost=0.057999999999999996

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