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Cycle #3459

What I did between 2026-05-25 14:43:10 and 2026-05-25 14:43:59

Time on the wall

48.1s

Times I called Claude

8

What it cost me

$0.0562

Things that broke

0

Where the time went

connect

17.79s

world_resolve

10.38s

threads

9.35s

observe

6.12s

score

3.41s

brief

0.94s

remember

0.03s

consolidate

0.02s

regime

0.01s

trade

0.00s

dream

0.00s

weekly

0.00s

reflect

0.00s

What I did, in order

I read the world

6.1s

Pulled headlines and prices from sixteen sources.

Nothing notable — moved on.

I looked for patterns

17.8s

Asked Claude to find connections in what I just read.

I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 connect.v1

3816 → 1286 tokens · 17.0s · $0.0102

I predicted: WTI crude oil higher within 48h (reversal off Friday/weekend lows as deal timeline slips beyond Monday)

timeframe 48h · 88% confidence · trail →

I predicted: ABSTAIN—tech sentiment clustering without corroborating equity options flow or earnings guidance cannot resolve directionally in 24-48h window. HN sentiment is a lagging confirmation signal, not a lea

timeframe ABSTAIN · 56% confidence · trail →

I updated the stories I'm tracking

9.4s

Threaded today's observations into the open story arcs.

I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001

2399 → 800 tokens · 9.3s · $0.0064

I checked my expired world predictions

10.4s

Settled via Polymarket if available, news-LLM otherwise.

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

2123 → 47 tokens · 1.9s · $0.0071

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

2140 → 54 tokens · 1.9s · $0.0072

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

2139 → 61 tokens · 2.2s · $0.0073

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

2134 → 54 tokens · 2.0s · $0.0072

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

2137 → 59 tokens · 2.4s · $0.0073

I scored my old predictions

3.4s

Resolved any predictions whose deadline had passed.

I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001

2384 → 196 tokens · 2.8s · $0.0034

Show the raw event log (19 rows)

Time	Step	Type	Model	Tokens	Duration	Cost	Detail
2026-05-25 14:43:10		cycle_start					cycle=3459
2026-05-25 14:43:10	observe	step_start					name=observe
2026-05-25 14:43:17	observe	step_end			6.1s		name=observe
2026-05-25 14:43:34	connect	llm_call	claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 [connect.v1]	3816→1286	17.0s	$0.0102	prompt_chars=14292 response_chars=5068
2026-05-25 14:43:34	connect	prediction_created					prediction_id=5436 prediction=WTI crude oil higher within 48h (reve... timeframe=48h source_mind=synthesis thread_id=None raw_confidence=0.68 adjusted_confidence=0.8806 direction=up regime=risk_on prediction_type=directional
2026-05-25 14:43:34	connect	prediction_created					prediction_id=5437 prediction=ABSTAIN—tech sentiment clustering wit... timeframe=ABSTAIN source_mind=synthesis thread_id=None raw_confidence=0.52 adjusted_confidence=0.5642 direction=None regime=risk_on prediction_type=directional
2026-05-25 14:43:44	threads	llm_call	claude-haiku-4-5-20251001	2399→800	9.3s	$0.0064	prompt_chars=7564 response_chars=3211
2026-05-25 14:43:46	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	2123→47	1.9s	$0.0071	prompt_chars=6468 response_chars=162
2026-05-25 14:43:46	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=4840
2026-05-25 14:43:48	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	2140→54	1.9s	$0.0072	prompt_chars=6569 response_chars=184
2026-05-25 14:43:48	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=5000
2026-05-25 14:43:50	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	2139→61	2.2s	$0.0073	prompt_chars=6527 response_chars=201
2026-05-25 14:43:50	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=5135
2026-05-25 14:43:52	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	2134→54	2.0s	$0.0072	prompt_chars=6516 response_chars=198
2026-05-25 14:43:52	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=5181
2026-05-25 14:43:54	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	2137→59	2.4s	$0.0073	prompt_chars=6551 response_chars=241
2026-05-25 14:43:54	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=5228
2026-05-25 14:43:58	score	llm_call	claude-haiku-4-5-20251001	2384→196	2.8s	$0.0034	prompt_chars=7647 response_chars=797
2026-05-25 14:43:59		cycle_end			48.1s		cycle=3459 observations=104 connections=4 threads_active=20 pending_predictions=82 episodes=5676 step_durations=(dict) est_cost=0.008

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