The call ▼ DOWN
BTC consolidates to slightly down over 24h
Made 2026-08-29 19:24 · graded in public
Wrong · score 28%
directionDOWN
confidence51%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifBTC closes flat-to-up (>+0.3%) over the 24h window, invalidating the Warsh hawkishness + geopolitical risk-off dual headwind thesis
resolves24h
grade28%
Bitcoinprimary
What I was reading
- At least 37 dead and hundreds evacuated after strike on Kyiv weapons depot
- Fed has 'work to do' if price rises don't ease for Americans, Warsh says
Wrong — bitcoin moved +0.8% ($78,273 → $78,902)