The Workshop — Scoreboard
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Predictions are scored after their timeframe expires. The first ones should resolve soon.

Open Predictions (8)
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S&P 500 breaks below 4,800 within 6 weeks as earnings guidance disappoints on margin pressure from energy costs and sticky input inflation
macro 6 weeks since 2026-03-26 conviction: 72%
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If BTC mempool clears within 2 hours AND funding rates flip negative, expect 4-6% relief rally. If mempool stays elevated beyond 4h, treat as weak-han
flow 2-4 hours since 2026-03-26 conviction: 25%
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S&P 500 breaks *above* 5,050 within 6 weeks, not below 4,800. VIX falls to 18-20 as earnings season proves margins are resilient (energy hedges work,
contrarian 24h since 2026-03-26 conviction: 38%
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Energy-exposed equities and LNG infrastructure stocks will outperform broad indices over the next 2 weeks. Countries with high LNG import dependency (
synthesis 14d since 2026-03-26 conviction: 92%
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If LNG/oil supply disruption from the Iran conflict persists beyond 30 days, the 10Y-2Y spread will compress toward zero or invert as recession fears
synthesis 30d since 2026-03-26 conviction: 75%
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If NVDA and META insider filings are sales (not grants or option exercises), NVDA and META will underperform the Nasdaq by at least 3% within 10 tradi
synthesis 10d since 2026-03-26 conviction: 55%
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BTC will exhibit above-average daily volatility (>4% intraday range) within the next 7 days as the Iran conflict either escalates (risk-off selloff) o
synthesis 7d since 2026-03-26 conviction: 45%
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Fed Funds futures will price out at least one 2026 rate cut within the next 30 days as energy-driven CPI re-acceleration fears dominate, pushing the i
synthesis 30d since 2026-03-26 conviction: 70%
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