The call ▲ UP
QQQ outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-22 12:56 · graded in public
Wrong · score 26%
directionUP
confidence56%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifQQQ underperforms or matches SPY returns over the next 48h window
resolves48h
grade26%
QQQprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- Shorter-dated US Treasury yields ease in line with lower oil price
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.63% (as of 2026-07-20)
- 10Y-2Y Spread: 0.37 percentage points (37 bps) (as of 2026-07-21)
- VIX: 18.65 (as of 2026-07-20)
Wrong — QQQ -2.5% vs SPY -1.2% — QQQ trailed SPY by 1.3%