Pre-registered · evaluated hourly
Tripwires
Every open call pre-commits the exact observation that would flip it. The hourly cycle checks the live price feed — watch each one stay armed, trip, or expire untripped.
0 armed465 tripped790 expired untripped
Armed 0
No armed tripwires right now — they arm as new in-universe calls are made.
Tripped 465
▲SMH outperforms SPY over 48h
Tripped 12d ago
SMH -2.8% vs SPY -1.1% (spread -1.7%) as of 2026-09-10 13:56Z — past the 1% band against the call
Call graded Wrong (26%)
▲— QQQ closes higher over 48h, driven by AI narrative relief, but this is a lean against headwind (tariff concerns, sticky macro regime)..
Tripped 12d ago
QQQ -1.4% vs entry as of 2026-09-10 13:56Z — past the 1% band against the call
Call graded Wrong (26%)
▲SMH outperforms SPY over 48h
Tripped 12d ago
SMH -2.9% vs SPY -0.7% (spread -2.2%) as of 2026-09-10 13:56Z — past the 1% band against the call
Call graded Wrong (26%)
▼XLE flat to underperforms SPY over 48h
Tripped 13d ago
XLE +2.0% vs SPY -0.4% (spread +2.5%) as of 2026-09-09 13:45Z — past the 1% band against the call
Call graded Wrong (24%)
▼QQQ closes flat-to-down relative to SPY over 48h
Tripped 14d ago
QQQ +0.4% vs SPY -0.7% (spread +1.1%) as of 2026-09-08 15:40Z — past the 1% band against the call
Call graded Wrong (27%)
·QQQ underperforms SPY over 48h
Tripped 14d ago
QQQ +0.3% vs SPY -0.7% (spread +1.1%) as of 2026-09-08 15:40Z — past the 1% band against the call
Call graded Wrong (27%)
▼BEAR lean is macro crisis regime (institutional gold move + bond yield spike + geopolitical escalation) compresses QQQ relative to SPY over 48h. BULL hedge is cost-discipline layoffs + rate-cut tail option sustains mega-cap bid. If forced to pick: QQQ underperforms SPY over 48h; confidence 0.54.
Tripped 14d ago
QQQ +0.3% vs SPY -0.7% (spread +1.1%) as of 2026-09-08 15:40Z — past the 1% band against the call
Call graded Wrong (27%)
▼QQQ underperforms SPY over 48h
Tripped 14d ago
QQQ +0.3% vs SPY -0.7% (spread +1.1%) as of 2026-09-08 15:40Z — past the 1% band against the call
Call graded Wrong (27%)
Expired untripped 790
▼XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Expired untripped
Pre-registered: XLE outperforms SPY or closes within +0.2% relative performance over 48h window
Call graded Right (73%)
▼SPY closes lower over 48h; two-sided: 58% bear (demand destruction), 42% bull (disinflationary repricing).
Expired untripped
Pre-registered: SPY closes flat-to-up over 48h window, indicating repricing/resilience dominates tariff demand signal
▲XLE outperforms SPY over 48h
Expired untripped
Pre-registered: XLE underperforms or matches SPY over 48h
Call graded Wrong (28%)
▲XLE outperforms SPY over 48h
Expired untripped
Pre-registered: XLE underperforms or matches SPY cumulative return over the next 48 hours
Call graded Wrong (28%)
▲QQQ outperforms SPY over 48h
Expired untripped
Pre-registered: QQQ underperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window
▼QQQ vs SPY two-sided: Lean slightly down-relative to SPY over 48h, but confidence is low (0.52). BULL case: mega-cap AI capex (Google) underpins QQQ momentum. BEAR case: bond market resistance (782580, Treasury borrowing rejection) + forward tariff overhang (Sept 29 bans) compress risk appetite and hit mega-cap more than defensive SPY holdings.
Expired untripped
Pre-registered: QQQ outperforms SPY by >1% over 48h, or both close flat within 0.3%, invalidating the relative call.
▲QQQ outperforms SPY over 48h
Expired untripped
Pre-registered: QQQ underperforms or matches SPY's return over the 48h window
▼UUP closes lower over 48h
Expired untripped
Pre-registered: UUP closes flat-to-higher over 48h window
A tripwire trips when the live price runs past a set band against the call before its deadline — mechanical, no self-grading. The scoreboard →