Tripwires — Workshop

Pre-registered · evaluated hourly

Tripwires

Every open call pre-commits the exact observation that would flip it. The hourly cycle checks the live price feed — watch each one stay armed, trip, or expire untripped.

30 armed207 tripped253 expired untripped

Armed 30

▲SPY holds or outperforms QQQ over 48h

flips if QQQ outperforms SPY by >0.5% over the 48h window

now: SPY -1.1% vs QQQ -2.0% (spread +0.9%) resolves in ~6h checked 50m ago

▲QQQ outperforms SPY over 48h

flips if QQQ underperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window

now: QQQ -2.0% vs SPY -1.1% (spread -0.9%) resolves in ~10h checked 50m ago

▼QQQ underperforms SPY over 48h

flips if QQQ outperforms SPY or SPY and QQQ move in tandem over the 48h window

now: QQQ +0.3% vs SPY +0.4% (spread -0.1%) resolves in ~25h checked 50m ago

▼IWM underperforms SPY over 48h

flips if IWM matches or outperforms SPY over the 48h window

now: IWM +0.1% vs SPY +0.1% (spread -0.0%) resolves in ~32h checked 50m ago

▼QQQ underperforms SPY over 48h

flips if QQQ matches or outperforms SPY over 48h window

now: QQQ -0.1% vs SPY +0.1% (spread -0.2%) resolves in ~36h checked 50m ago

▼QQQ underperforms SPY over 48h

flips if QQQ matches or outperforms SPY price change over 48h window

now: QQQ -0.1% vs SPY +0.1% (spread -0.2%) resolves in ~38h checked 50m ago

▼QQQ underperforms SPY over 48h

flips if QQQ outperforms or matches SPY over 48h window

now: QQQ -0.1% vs SPY +0.1% (spread -0.2%) resolves in ~42h checked 50m ago

▼QQQ underperforms SPY over 48h

flips if QQQ outperforms SPY or trades flat relative to SPY over 48h window

now: QQQ -0.1% vs SPY +0.1% (spread -0.2%) resolves in ~45h checked 50m ago

▲MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h

flips if MSFT underperforms or matches SPY return over 48h window

now: MSFT -2.1% vs SPY -1.2% (spread -0.8%) resolves in ~30m checked 2h ago

▲XLE holds flat to marginally outperforms SPY over 48h

flips if XLE underperforms SPY by >0.5 points over 48h window

now: XLE +0.1% vs SPY -1.4% (spread +1.5%) resolves in ~4h checked 2h ago

▼TSLA underperforms SPY over 48h

flips if TSLA matches or outperforms SPY over 48h

now: TSLA -14.5% vs SPY -1.2% (spread -13.3%) resolves in ~9h checked 2h ago

▲XLE outperforms SPY over 48h

flips if XLE underperforms SPY or matches SPY over 48h window as tariff-driven macro risk-off overwhelms supply premium

now: XLE +0.3% vs SPY -1.2% (spread +1.5%) resolves in ~13h checked 2h ago

▲MSFT outperforms GOOGL over 48h

flips if GOOGL outperforms or matches MSFT price change over 48h window

now: MSFT -2.2% vs GOOGL -7.1% (spread +4.9%) resolves in ~13h checked 2h ago

▼GOOGL underperforms SPY over 48h

flips if GOOGL matches or outperforms SPY return over 48h

now: GOOGL -7.1% vs SPY -1.2% (spread -5.9%) resolves in ~13h checked 2h ago

▲XLE outperforms SPY over 48h

flips if XLE underperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window

now: XLE +0.3% vs SPY -1.2% (spread +1.5%) resolves in ~15h checked 2h ago

▼GOOGL underperforms SPY over 48h

flips if GOOGL outperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window

now: GOOGL -7.1% vs SPY -1.2% (spread -5.9%) resolves in ~16h checked 2h ago

▼GOOGL underperforms SPY over 48h post-earnings, driven by negative FCF disclosure against tariff/capex ROI uncertainty

flips if GOOGL outperforms SPY or matches SPY over 48h window post-8-K

now: GOOGL -7.1% vs SPY -1.2% (spread -5.9%) resolves in ~17h checked 2h ago

▼GOOGL underperforms SPY over 48h

flips if GOOGL matches or outperforms SPY over 48h

now: GOOGL -7.1% vs SPY -1.2% (spread -5.9%) resolves in ~17h checked 2h ago

▼TSLA underperforms SPY over 48h

flips if TSLA outperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window from filing date

now: TSLA -1.6% vs SPY -0.2% (spread -1.4%) resolves in ~26h checked 2h ago

▼GOOGL underperforms SPY over 48h

flips if GOOGL matches or outperforms SPY over 48h

now: GOOGL +0.0% vs SPY +0.0% (spread +0.0%) resolves in ~33h checked 2h ago

·GOOGL underperforms SPY over 48h

flips if GOOGL outperforms or matches SPY over 48h window

now: GOOGL +0.0% vs SPY +0.0% (spread +0.0%) resolves in ~34h checked 2h ago

▼GOOGL underperforms QQQ over 48h

flips if GOOGL matches or outperforms QQQ over 48h, or the $1B fine is disclosed as fully-reserved and does not move price negatively at open

now: GOOGL +0.0% vs QQQ +0.0% (spread +0.0%) resolves in ~35h checked 2h ago

▼GOOGL underperforms SPY over 48h

flips if GOOGL outperforms or matches SPY performance over 48h window

now: GOOGL +0.0% vs SPY +0.0% (spread +0.0%) resolves in ~36h checked 2h ago

▲TSLA outperforms SPY over 48h

flips if TSLA closes flat or underperforms SPY over 48h window

now: TSLA +0.0% vs SPY +0.0% (spread +0.0%) resolves in ~37h checked 2h ago

▲MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h

flips if MSFT underperforms or matches SPY total return (including intraday moves) over the 48h window

now: MSFT +0.0% vs SPY +0.0% (spread +0.0%) resolves in ~39h checked 2h ago

▲TSLA outperforms SPY over 48h

flips if TSLA underperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window

now: TSLA +0.0% vs SPY +0.0% (spread +0.0%) resolves in ~41h checked 2h ago

▲GOOGL outperforms SPY over 48h

flips if GOOGL underperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window

now: GOOGL +0.0% vs SPY +0.0% (spread +0.0%) resolves in ~41h checked 2h ago

▼GOOGL underperforms SPY over 48h post-10-Q (07-23 filing)

flips if GOOGL matches or outperforms SPY over the 48h post-filing window

now: GOOGL +0.0% vs SPY +0.0% (spread +0.0%) resolves in ~43h checked 2h ago

▼TSLA underperforms SPY over 48h post-10-Q (07-23 filing)

flips if TSLA matches or outperforms SPY over the 48h post-filing window

now: TSLA +0.0% vs SPY +0.0% (spread +0.0%) resolves in ~43h checked 2h ago

▲COIN outperforms SPY over 24h

flips if COIN underperforms or matches SPY over 24h window

now: COIN +0.0% vs SPY +0.0% (spread +0.0%) resolves in ~21h checked 2h ago

Tripped 207

▼XLE underperforms or matches SPY over 48h

Tripped 21h ago

XLE +0.9% vs SPY -1.4% (spread +2.2%) as of 2026-07-23 17:35Z — past the 1% band against the call

▼XLE underperforms SPY over 48h

Tripped 21h ago

XLE +0.9% vs SPY -1.2% (spread +2.1%) as of 2026-07-23 17:35Z — past the 1% band against the call

▲GOOGL outperforms SPY over 48h

Tripped 21h ago

GOOGL -6.5% vs SPY -1.2% (spread -5.2%) as of 2026-07-23 17:35Z — past the 1% band against the call

▲Bull case—TSLA outperforms SPY if 8-K reveals guidance raise or AI/margin recovery narrative. Bear case—TSLA underperforms SPY if profit miss is confirmed forward and margin pressure persists. Lean bear on 48h horizon.

Tripped 21h ago

TSLA -13.8% vs SPY -1.2% (spread -12.6%) as of 2026-07-23 17:35Z — past the 1% band against the call

▲GOOGL outperforms SPY over 48h

Tripped 21h ago

GOOGL -6.5% vs SPY -1.2% (spread -5.2%) as of 2026-07-23 17:35Z — past the 1% band against the call

▼XLE underperforms SPY over 48h

Tripped 21h ago

XLE +0.9% vs SPY -1.2% (spread +2.1%) as of 2026-07-23 17:35Z — past the 1% band against the call

▼RELATIVE TWO-SIDED: XLE vs SPY leans slightly toward SPY outperformance over 48h

Tripped 21h ago

XLE +0.9% vs SPY -1.2% (spread +2.1%) as of 2026-07-23 17:35Z — past the 1% band against the call

▲SPY outperforms XLE over 48h

Tripped 21h ago

SPY -1.2% vs XLE +0.9% (spread -2.1%) as of 2026-07-23 17:35Z — past the 1% band against the call

Expired untripped 253

▼QQQ underperforms SPY over 48h, driven by platform/AI regulatory overhang.

Expired untripped

Pre-registered: QQQ outperforms or matches SPY over 48h, or VIX spikes above 22 and risk-off rotation favors mega-cap defensive positioning in QQQ instead.

Call graded Right (75%)

▼IWM underperforms SPY over 48h

Expired untripped

Pre-registered: IWM closes higher or matches SPY price change over 48h window

▲NVDA outperforms SPY over 48h

Expired untripped

Pre-registered: NVDA underperforms SPY or matches SPY return over the 48h window

Call graded Right (80%)

·XLE outperforms SPY over 48h

Expired untripped

Pre-registered: XLE underperforms or matches SPY over 48h; oil stays flat or retreats

Call graded Right (89%)