The call ▲ UP
SMH outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-09-09 20:46 · graded in public
Wrong · score 26%
directionUP
confidence53%
reasoning60% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifSMH underperforms SPY or matches SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade26%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SMHprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Wrong — SMH -1.0% vs SPY +0.2% — SMH trailed SPY by 1.3%
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