The call ▼ DOWN
QQQ underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-09-04 00:09 · graded in public
Wrong · score 27%
directionDOWN
confidence53%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifQQQ outperforms SPY or closes flat-to-positive relative to SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade27%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
QQQprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Wrong — QQQ +0.1% vs SPY -0.9% — QQQ beat SPY by 1.0%