The call ▲ UP
QQQ outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-22 07:30 · graded in public
Wrong · score 27%
directionUP
confidence54%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifQQQ underperforms or matches SPY over 48h, OR a new kinetic wire (Iran retaliation, strait formal closure) breaks in the next 8 hours and VIX spikes >22
resolves48h
grade27%
QQQprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- US renews strikes on Iran as Trump threatens to attack underground nuclear site
- Lower fuel, chocolate and beef prices help push inflation down
- Houthis Threaten Red Sea Blockade, Putting Oil Market at Greater Risk
Wrong — QQQ -2.4% vs SPY -1.3% — QQQ trailed SPY by 1.0%