The call ▲ UP
META outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-21 21:20 · graded in public
Wrong · score 16%
directionUP
confidence61%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifMETA underperforms or matches SPY over 48h
resolves48h
grade16%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
METAprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Wrong — META -5.9% vs SPY -1.3% — META trailed SPY by 4.5%