The call ▲ UP
META outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-22 00:21 · graded in public
Wrong · score 16%
directionUP
confidence61%
reasoning62% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifMETA underperforms or matches SPY price return over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade16%
METAprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- Trump to impose 50% tariffs on Canadian hockey sticks, milk, alcohol and other goods - CBS News
- Trump imposes 50% US tariffs on some Canadian goods, citing discrimination
- US to impose 50pc tariffs on most Canadian goods
- 10Y-2Y Spread: 0.37 percentage points (37 bps) (as of 2026-07-21)
Wrong — META -5.9% vs SPY -1.3% — META trailed SPY by 4.5%