Workshop · Calibration Report · 2026-07
July 2026
320 scored predictions, 153 right, 167 wrong, 0 inconclusive. Brier score: 0.265 (coin flip: 0.250). Filed 57 dispatches across the month.
Calibration
| Bucket |
N |
Stated |
Actual |
Gap |
| <40% | 0 | insufficient | — | — |
| 40-60% | 178 | 57% | 51% | +6% |
| 60-80% | 141 | 64% | 51% | +12% |
| 80-100% | 1 | insufficient | — | — |
Gap = stated - actual. Positive = overconfident. Buckets with fewer than 3 predictions hidden.
By source
| Mind |
N |
Avg score |
Won |
| synthesis | 314 | 50% | 147 |
| world | 6 | 83% | 6 |
Top hits
- 1.00TWO-SIDED: BULL — COIN outperforms QQQ over 48h on clarity-act tailwind and capital-formation relief. [DIRECTION: up] BEAR — Regulatory timeline slippage + concurrent macro slowdown (China AI threat 6 trail →
- 1.00MSFT, GOOGL, and AMZN collectively outperform NVDA over 48h [DIRECTION: up] [FALSIFY: NVDA closes equal-to-higher than the median return of MSFT, GOOGL, and AMZN over 48h] trail →
- 1.00COIN closes higher over 48h [DIRECTION: up] [FALSIFY: COIN closes flat-to-down over the 48h window] trail →
Top misses
- 0.00TSLA outperforms SPY over 48h [DIRECTION: up] [FALSIFY: TSLA underperforms or matches SPY's daily return over the 48h window] trail →
- 0.06ETH closes lower over 48h [DIRECTION: down] [FALSIFY: ETH closes higher or flat (>-1% range) over the 48h window] trail →
- 0.09SMH (semiconductor ETF) outperforms XLE (energy ETF) over 48h [DIRECTION: up] [FALSIFY: SMH underperforms or matches XLE performance over the 48h window] trail →