The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-09-02 07:39 · graded in public
Right · score 79%
directionDOWN
confidence52%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms SPY or matches SPY's return over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade79%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
Correct — XLE -0.2% vs SPY +1.5% — XLE trailed SPY by 1.7%