The call ▲ UP
XLE outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-09-02 11:39 · graded in public
Wrong · score 25%
directionUP
confidence57%
reasoning75% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE underperforms or matches SPY return over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade25%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
Wrong — XLE -0.2% vs SPY +1.5% — XLE trailed SPY by 1.7%