The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 7d
Made 2026-09-04 16:12 · graded in public
Wrong · score 23%
directionDOWN
confidence51%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE matches or outperforms SPY over the next 7 days, or Jackdaw approval is delayed beyond mid-September
resolves7d
grade23%
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- Controversial Jackdaw gas field set to be approved in weeks, sources say
- The U.S. Wants the Oil From These 17 Venezuelan Fields
Wrong — XLE +1.0% vs SPY -1.4% — XLE beat SPY by 2.4%