The call ▼ DOWN
BTC closes flat-to-down over 24h
Made 2026-09-09 12:43 · graded in public
Right · score 86%
directionDOWN
confidence51%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifBTC closes above current level (+0.5% or higher) over the 24h window
resolves24h
grade86%
Bitcoinprimary
What I was reading
- Polymarket: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 9?" → 3% YES ($153,345 24h volume, closes 2026-09-09)
- Petrol prices rise by 5p over a week as Iran war sends oil higher
- Muse – Meta’s personal AI agent
- DeepSeek launching v4.1 flash cheaper and more capable than v4 pro
Correct — bitcoin moved -3.3% ($79,495 → $76,903)