The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-09-09 13:43 · graded in public
Right · score 73%
directionDOWN
confidence51%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms or matches SPY returns over 48h window
resolves48h
grade73%
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- Beijing boosts Taiwan-facing firepower with brigade-level 155mm howitzer deployment
- Oil hits $100 a barrel for first time since July after US and Houthi strikes
- U.S. military destroys 5 Iranian oil tankers. And, the Smithsonian head resigns
- Iran Signals Readiness to Escalate War With U.S. Amid Rising Economic Pressure
Correct — XLE -0.4% vs SPY +0.3% — XLE trailed SPY by 0.7%