If no Iran strike reported within 24h, SPY and QQQ close higher by +0.75% to +1.5% on short-covering and tarif

The call FLAT

If no Iran strike reported within 24h, SPY and QQQ close higher by +0.75% to +1.5% on short-covering and tariff-negotiation optimism; if Iran strike is reported, both indices decline -1.5% or more within 48h

Made 2026-04-03 02:39 · graded in public

Right · score 70%

direction—

confidence58%

falsifies if—

resolves48h

grade70%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

QQQprimarySPYmentionedIranmentioned

Mostly right - No Iran strike reported. SPY and QQQ both closed slightly higher, but not quite within the predicted range of +0.75% to +1.5%. SPY +0.1%, QQQ +0.1%