The call ▼ DOWN
QQQ closes lower relative to SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-02 22:09 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence71%
reasoning85% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifQQQ outperforms SPY or both move flat together over 48h
resolves48h
gradeopen
QQQprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- 10Y-2Y Spread: 0.35 percentage points (35 bps) (as of 2026-07-02)
- 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.48% (as of 2026-07-01)
- 2Y Treasury Yield: 4.17% (as of 2026-07-01)
- HY Credit Spread: 2.74 percentage points (274 bps) (as of 2026-07-01)