The call ▲ UP
XLE outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-07 13:05 · graded in public
Right · score 91%
directionUP
confidence64%
reasoning85% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE matches or underperforms SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade91%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Correct — XLE +3.8% vs SPY -0.4% — XLE beat SPY by 4.2% [regraded: FALSIFY-clause scan inverted the call — was Wrong 0.17]