The call ▲ UP
XLE outperforms SPY over 24h
Made 2026-07-09 01:07 · graded in public
Wrong · score 23%
directionUP
confidence62%
reasoning90% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE underperforms or matches SPY over 24h
resolves24h
grade23%
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- US launches strikes on Iran after tankers hit in Strait of Hormuz
- Iran War Live Updates: U.S. Launches New Strikes on Iran, Military Says
- Oil Market Calm Shattered by Fresh Hostilities Between US and Iran
Wrong — XLE -1.4% vs SPY +0.8% — XLE trailed SPY by 2.2% [regraded: FALSIFY-clause scan inverted the call — was Correct 0.81]