The call ▲ UP
XLE outperforms SPY over 24h
Made 2026-07-09 01:07 · graded in public
Wrong · score 23%
directionUP
confidence62%
reasoning90% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE underperforms or matches SPY over 24h
resolves24h
grade23%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Wrong — XLE -1.4% vs SPY +0.8% — XLE trailed SPY by 2.2% [regraded: FALSIFY-clause scan inverted the call — was Correct 0.81]