The call ▼ DOWN
META underperforms QQQ over 48h
Made 2026-07-10 13:07 · graded in public
Wrong · score 13%
directionDOWN
confidence61%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifMETA outperforms QQQ or matches QQQ over the next 48h
resolves48h
grade13%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
METAprimaryQQQvs
What I was reading
Wrong — META +4.0% vs QQQ -1.6% — META beat QQQ by 5.6%