The call ▲ UP
XLE outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-13 02:53 · graded in public
Right · score 89%
directionUP
confidence58%
reasoning75% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE closes flat-to-down relative to SPY over the 48h window, or oil futures retreat below Friday close despite Iran strikes
resolves48h
grade89%
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- US insists Strait of Hormuz is open as it exchanges strikes with Iran
- Oil Prices Surge After Iran and U.S. Trade Strikes
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.62% (as of 2026-07-09)
- 10Y-2Y Spread: 0.35 percentage points (35 bps) (as of 2026-07-10)
Correct — XLE +3.4% vs SPY -0.4% — XLE beat SPY by 3.8%