XLE underperforms SPY over 48h in risk-on regime persistence

The call FLAT

Made 2026-07-13 17:07 · graded in public

Right · score 75%

direction—

confidence51%

reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifXLE closes higher than SPY on a relative basis, or SPY declines while XLE rises

resolves48h

grade75%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryXLEvs

What I was reading

Trump says the U.S. will reinstate its blockade on Iran and charge a toll on ships
Live Updates: U.S. and Iran Edge Toward War Again
Will Oil Prices Rise as the US-Iran Truce Frays? The Answer Lies With China
Global Refining Capacity Crunch: Crack Spread Surges to $60 as Fuel Crisis Outstrips Crude Price War

Correct — XLE -0.6% vs SPY +0.3% — XLE trailed SPY by 0.9%