The call ▲ UP
XLE outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-13 23:21 · graded in public
Wrong · score 26%
directionUP
confidence62%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE underperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade26%
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- Trump reinstates Iran port blockade and vows 20% charge on cargo passing through Hormuz
- Trump’s Strait of Hormuz Fee Could Double the Cost of Shipping
- The Fed’s Christopher Waller Warns of Higher Rates Soon if Inflation Stays High
Wrong — XLE -0.4% vs SPY +0.8% — XLE trailed SPY by 1.2%