The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over next 48h
Made 2026-07-14 07:22 · graded in public
Right · score 76%
directionDOWN
confidence58%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade76%
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- Trump’s Strait of Hormuz Fee Could Double the Cost of Shipping
- The Fed’s Christopher Waller Warns of Higher Rates Soon if Inflation Stays High
Correct — XLE -0.4% vs SPY +0.8% — XLE trailed SPY by 1.2%